THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 1

How can an attic and a ladder help us to better understand our thinking processes?

Subject:  Thinking and Memory - The Brain Attic and Ladder of Inference

Event:  Sir Arthur Conan Doyle introduces Sherlock Holmes, 1887

On this day in 1887, the detective Sherlock Holmes first appeared in Arthur Conan Doyle’s story “A Study in Scarlet.”  The story was published in a paperback magazine called Beeton’s Christmas Annual (1).

Early in the story, Holmes is becoming acquainted with his new roommate, Dr. Watson, who also is the narrator of the story.  As the two talk, Holmes presents a metaphor that explains his philosophy towards knowledge:  the brain attic:

I consider that a man's brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose. A fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across, so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things, so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it. Now the skillful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic. He will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order. It is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent. Depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before. It is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones. (2)

To sum up Holmes' philosophy, we might say simply, “Garbage in, garbage out.”  Clearly, his brain attic metaphor challenges us to be conscious and mindful about how and with what we stock our memory.

One essential piece of hardware we might use for this task is called the Ladder of Inference.  Many people need a ladder to reach their attics, but this is not a ladder you will find at the hardware store.  Like the brain attic, it’s a metaphor.

The Ladder of Inference was created by organization psychologist Chris Argyris.  By breaking our light-speed thinking process down into six phases, we can analyze how we infer meaning, draw conclusions, establish beliefs, and take action.  By making our thinking process less hurried and random, we’re much more likely to keep our brain attic uncluttered.

                                                                Image by tommy pixel from Pixabay 

Before we look at the six rungs of the ladder of inference, let’s look at a short story that we can use to illustrate how we might use the ladder.

Sale Lost, Lesson Gained

One early morning, a used car salesman named Jerry arrived for duty.  Standing outside, he surveyed his inventory, hoping the day would produce some sales.  Suddenly, a yellow Vega driven by an elderly woman turned into the car lot and pulled up alongside Jerry.  The woman rolled down her window and asked:

“Do you discount here?”

Jerry responded, “Yes, ma’am,” as he tried to conceal his excitement.

The woman frowned and said, “Pappy always said there’s no bargain in discounted goods.”  The woman then rolled up her window and proceeded to drive out of the car lot.

As he watched the yellow Vega in the distance, Jerry thought about the brief encounter.  Looking for a silver lining, he thought: “Well, I lost my first customer of the day, but at least I gained a point of view.” 

We begin our thinking process on the bottom, first rung of the ladder by FILTERING DATA based on the information we take in from our senses. Sherlock Holmes was a master at observation.  He knew that only by deliberately and consciously practicing seeing, can we learn to truly observe.  No one sees, hears, tastes, smells, or feels everything; we are all limited by our different perceptions of reality.  Therefore, instead of seeing all of reality and all facts, we select a part of reality -- the part that seems important to us based on the context of the situation.  For example, in our story, many cars were driving by the used car lot, but our narrator focused primarily on the yellow Vega that pulled into the lot.  

Next, we step up to the second rung by INFERRING MEANING based on what data we have selected.  This step requires interpretation and educated guesses, and it can be heavily influenced by emotion, associations, and cultural/personal experience.  For example, in our story, the narrator inferred that the driver of the Pinto was looking for a “discount” even though she never explicitly said that she was.

The third rung is where we MAKE ASSUMPTIONS.  Often these assumptions are unconscious rather than conscious assumptions.  This is also the rung where we begin to build a narrative that will explain what we see and hear.  Unfortunately, we seldom question that narrative or generate alternative possible explanations.  For example, in our story, the narrator assumed that his interpretation of the word “discount” was the same interpretation as the driver of the Pinto. 

The fourth rung is where we DRAW CONCLUSIONS.  While these conclusions are influenced by our assumptions, they are also influenced by our prior beliefs, which include a whole range of cognitive biases, such as availability bias, confirmation bias, and cognitive dissonance.  For example, in our story, the narrator falsely concluded that the driver of the Vega wanted him to answer “Yes” to the question about discounting. Instead of drawing a rational conclusion based on questioning his prior inferences and assumptions, he jumped to a hasty conclusion.

The fifth rung is where we FORM BELIEFS. Based on the context of the situation, we affirm or adjust our beliefs.  For example, in our story, the narrator’s conclusion about the elderly woman became a belief that she was looking for a discount.  His belief seemingly blinded him to seeing an alternative possibility.

The sixth rung is where we TAKE ACTION,  applying our conclusion and beliefs to a seemingly conscious decision.  For example, in our story, the narrator took action, answering the woman’s question with the response that his false assumptions, hasty conclusions, and incorrect beliefs had led him to (3).

Of course, it is too simplistic to characterize the complexity of our thinking process as a simple step-by-step process from the bottom to the top of the ladder.  Instead, each rung is influenced by the others.  Our assumptions, values, and beliefs influence our perception of the world; therefore, they influence how we select and interpret data, and often our beliefs and past actions influence our perceptions.  In our story, for example, the driver of the Vega acquired her negative view of discounting from her “Pappy.”  Guided by this belief, she is likely to reject discounting as a positive.  The narrator, however, seems to make an adjustment to his beliefs at the end of the story.  He says he “gained a point of view,” which leads us to think that the next time he encounters a question from a customer, he will be less likely to jump to a hasty conclusion.  He might even generate alternative interpretations and question his own assumptions before drawing a conclusion.  He might also have learned a lesson about the influence of emotion (“containing my excitement) on clouding clear thinking.

 

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  What are the six rungs of the ladder of inference, and how does each rung contribute to our thinking process?

Challenge - Diagram Ladder of Inference:  Draw a graphic representation of the ladder of inference, labeling its six rungs.  Think of a situation, a story, or an experience you had that involved decision-making.  Break down the process of that decision-making using each of the six rungs of the ladder of inference.

ALSO ON THIS DATE:

December 1, 1955: On this day Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat on a Mongomery, Alabama, bus. Speaking in 2013, former president Barack Obama said the following about Parks:  “She reminds us that this is how change happens -- not mainly through the exploits of the famous and the powerful, but through the countless acts of often anonymous courage and kindness and fellow feeling and responsibility that continually, stubbornly, expand our conception of justice -- our conception of what is possible” (4).

Sources: 

1- Ray Setterfield. “How the First Sherlock Holmes Story was Sold for a Song.” On This Day December 1

2. Doyle, A. Conan. “A Study in Scarlet.” Project Gutenberg  E-book 12 July 2008.

3.  Schools That Learn. “Ladder of Inference.”

4. The White House, President Barack Obama.  “Remarks by the President at Dedication of Statue Honoring Rosa Parks -- US Capitol.”  February 27, 2013.

THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 31

If you condensed 15 million years -- the age of the universe -- into a 365 calendar, on what day and at what time did the human species arrive?

Subject: Time - Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar

Event:  December 31

 

The construction of such tables and calendars is inevitably humbling….dinosaurs emerge on Christmas Eve; flowers arise on December 28th; and men and women originate at 10:30 P.M. on New Year's Eve. All of recorded history occupies the last ten seconds of December 31. -Carl Sagan

In his 1977 book Dragons of Eden, astronomer Carl Sagan tackles the problem of trying to illustrate how old the world is relative to how young human beings are.  To do this he constructs what he calls a Cosmic Calendar.  In this calendar, Sagan asks the reader to imagine the 15 billion years condensed and recorded on a 365-day calendar.

On the Cosmic Calendar, the key event on January 1 is the Big Bang (the beginning of the universe).  Other key events don’t occur until September, such as the formation of the earth on September 14 and the origin of life on Earth on September 25.

                                                                    Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

If you represented the Cosmic Calendar as the length of a 100 yard football field, the whole of human history would represent a length no larger than the size of a hand.

The key day on the Cosmic Calendar for humankind, therefore, is today: December 31.  It should be humbling to realize how recently our species has appeared:  10:30 PM on December 31st.  Fire became an available tool minutes ago, at 11:46 PM and the first cities appeared at 11:59:35 PM.  Because the alphabet was invented just seconds ago, at 11:59:51 PM, all of recorded human history must be squeezed into a period of just ten seconds.  In Sagan’s words, “Every person we’ve ever heard of lived somewhere in there. All those kings and battles, migrations and inventions, wars and loves. Everything in the history books happens here, in the last 10 seconds of the cosmic calendar.”

The point of the Cosmic Calendar is to give us some perspective about how long our species has been on Earth relative to how long the universe has been in existence.  Although we as humans are newcomers, arriving just 90 minutes before the clock strikes twelve, beginning a new year, we still have enormous power to influence the next cosmic year.  As Sagan puts it, “We have a choice: we can enhance life and come to know the universe that made us, or we can squander our 15 billion year heritage in meaningless self destruction.  What happens in the first second of the next cosmic year depends on what we do.”

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  At what time on the cosmic calendar do humans first appear?

Challenge - It’s the Time of the Season:  What is the best thing anyone has ever said about time?  Do some research to find quotations.  Write down the one you like the best, and explain why you think the quotation is insightful.

ALSO ON THIS DAY:

December 31, 1930:  On this day in the 1930s, Jay Hormel hosted a New Year's Eve party where he challenged his guests to create a name for his latest invention, a canned pork product. On that night not only was a new year born but also one of the most successful and most recognizable brand names in history came into being: Spam. The winning name was formed from the contraction of sp(iced h)am; the winner of the contest was awarded $100. Thanks to a sketch and song from the British television show Monty Python's Flying Circus, the word Spam lost its capital letter and became a lowercase common noun referring to unsolicited e-mail. In the sketch, which first appeared in 1970, a waitress recites a list of menu items, all including Spam. As the menu is being recited, a song begins where male voices chant the word Spam more than 100 times. It's this seemingly endless, repetitive chant that inspired computer users to select spam as the appropriate appellation for unwanted, disruptive email in 1994 (2).

Sources:

1-Sagan, Carl. The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence. New York: Ballantine Books, 1978. 

2-Steinmetz, Sol and Barbara Ann Kipfer. The Life of Language. New York: Random House, 2006.

THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 1

Subject:  Thinking and Memory - The Brain Attic and Ladder of Inference

Event:  Sir Arthur Conan Doyle introduces Sherlock Holmes, 1887

On this day in 1887, the detective Sherlock Holmes first appeared in Arthur Conan Doyle’s story “A Study in Scarlet.”  The story was published in a paperback magazine called Beeton’s Christmas Annual (1).

Early in the story, Holmes is becoming acquainted with his new roommate, Dr. Watson, who also is the narrator of the story.  As the two talk, Holmes presents a metaphor that explains his philosophy towards knowledge:  the brain attic:

I consider that a man's brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose. A fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across, so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things, so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it. Now the skillful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic. He will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order. It is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent. Depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before. It is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones. (2)

To sum up Holmes' philosophy, we might say simply, “Garbage in, garbage out.”  Clearly, his brain attic metaphor challenges us to be conscious and mindful about how and with what we stock our memory.

One essential piece of hardware we might use for this task is called the Ladder of Inference.  Many people need a ladder to reach their attics, but this is not a ladder you will find at the hardware store.  Like the brain attic, it’s a metaphor.

The Ladder of Inference was created by organization psychologist Chris Argyris.  By breaking our light-speed thinking process down into six phases, we can analyze how we infer meaning, draw conclusions, establish beliefs, and take action.  By making our thinking process less hurried and random, we’re much more likely to keep our brain attic uncluttered.

Before we look at the six rungs of the ladder of inference, let’s look at a short story that we can use to illustrate how we might use the ladder.

Sale Lost, Lesson Gained

One early morning, a used car salesman named Jerry arrived for duty.  Standing outside, he surveyed his inventory, hoping the day would produce some sales.  Suddenly, a yellow Vega driven by an elderly woman turned into the car lot and pulled up alongside Jerry.  The woman rolled down her window and asked:

“Do you discount here?”

Jerry responded, “Yes, ma’am,” as he tried to conceal his excitement.

The woman frowned and said, “Pappy always said there’s no bargain in discounted goods.”  The woman then rolled up her window and proceeded to drive out of the car lot.

As he watched the yellow Vega in the distance, Jerry thought about the brief encounter.  Looking for a silver lining, he thought: “Well, I lost my first customer of the day, but at least I gained a point of view.” 

We begin our thinking process on the bottom, first rung of the ladder by FILTERING DATA based on the information we take in from our senses. Sherlock Holmes was a master at observation.  He knew that only by deliberately and consciously practicing seeing, can we learn to truly observe.  No one sees, hears, tastes, smells, or feels everything; we are all limited by our different perceptions of reality.  Therefore, instead of seeing all of reality and all facts, we select a part of reality -- the part that seems important to us based on the context of the situation.  For example, in our story, many cars were driving by the used car lot, but our narrator focussed primarily on the yellow Vega that pulled into the lot.  

Next, we step up to the second rung by INFERRING MEANING based on what data we have selected.  This step requires interpretation and educated guesses, and it can be heavily influenced by emotion, associations, and cultural/personal experience.  For example, in our story, the narrator inferred that the driver of the Pinto was looking for a “discount” even though she never explicitly said that she was.

The third rung is where we MAKE ASSUMPTIONS.  Often these assumptions are unconscious rather than conscious assumptions.  This is also the rung where we begin to build a narrative that will explain what we see and hear.  Unfortunately, we seldom question that narrative or generate alternative possible explanations.  For example, in our story, the narrator assumed that his interpretation of the word “discount” was the same interpretation as the driver of the Pinto. 

The fourth rung is where we DRAW CONCLUSIONS.  While these conclusions are influenced by our assumptions, they are also influenced by our prior beliefs, which include a whole range of cognitive biases, such as availability bias, confirmation bias, and cognitive dissonance.  For example, in our story, the narrator falsely concluded that the driver of the Vega wanted him to answer “Yes” to the question about discounting. Instead of drawing a rational conclusion based on questioning his prior inferences and assumptions, he jumped to a hasty conclusion.

The fifth rung is where we FORM BELIEFS. Based on the context of the situation, we affirm or adjust our beliefs.  For example, in our story, the narrator’s conclusion about the elderly woman became a belief that she was looking for a discount.  His belief seemingly blinded him to seeing an alternative possibility.

The sixth rung is where we TAKE ACTION,  applying our conclusion and beliefs to a seemingly conscious decision.  For example, in our story, the narrator took action, answering the woman’s question with the response that his false assumptions, hasty conclusions, and incorrect beliefs had led him to (3).

Of course, it is too simplistic to characterize the complexity of our thinking process as a simple step-by-step process from the bottom to the top of the ladder.  Instead, each rung is influenced by the others.  Our assumptions, values, and beliefs influence our perception of the world; therefore, they influence how we select and interpret data, and often our beliefs and past actions influence our perceptions.  In our story, for example, the driver of the Vega acquired her negative view of discounting from her “Pappy.”  Guided by this belief, she is likely to reject discounting as a positive.  The narrator, however, seems to make an adjustment to his beliefs at the end of the story.  He says he “gained a point of view,” which leads us to think that the next time he encounters a question from a customer, he will be less likely to jump to a hasty conclusion.  He might even generate alternative interpretations and question his own assumptions before drawing a conclusion.  He might also have learned a lesson about the influence of emotion (“containing my excitement) on clouding clear thinking.

Challenge - Diagram Ladder of Inference:  Draw a graphic representation of the ladder of inference, labeling its six rungs.  Think of a situation, a story, or an experience you had that involved decision-making.  Break down the process of that decision-making using each of the six rungs of the ladder of inference.

Sources: 

1- Ray Setterfield. “How the First Sherlock Holmes Story was Sold for a Song.” On This Day December 1

2. Doyle, A. Conan. “A Study in Scarlet.” Project Gutenberg  E-book 12 July 2008.

3.  Schools That Learn. “Ladder of Inference.”

THINKER'S ALMANAC: December 31

Subject: Time - Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar

Event:  December 31

 

The construction of such tables and calendars is inevitably humbling….dinosaurs emerge on Christmas Eve; flowers arise on December 28th; and men and women originate at 10:30 P.M. on New Year's Eve. All of recorded history occupies the last ten seconds of December 31. -Carl Sagan

In his 1977 book Dragons of Eden, astronomer Carl Sagan tackles the problem of trying to illustrate how old the world is relative to how young human beings are.  To do this he constructs what he calls a Cosmic Calendar.  In this calendar, Sagan asks the reader to imagine the 15 billion years condensed and recorded on a 365-day calendar.

On the Cosmic Calendar, the key event on January 1 is the Big Bang (the beginning of the universe).  Other key events don’t occur until September, such as the formation of the earth on September 14 and the origin of life on Earth on September 25.

If you represented the Cosmic Calendar as the length of a 100-yard football field, the whole of human history would represent a length no larger than the size of a hand.

The key day on the Cosmic Calendar for humankind, therefore, is today: December 31.  It should be humbling to realize how recently our species has appeared:  10:30 PM on December 31st.  Fire became an available tool minutes ago, at 11:46 PM and the first cities appeared at 11:59:35 PM.  Because the alphabet was invented just seconds ago, at 11:59:51 PM, all of recorded human history must be squeezed into a period of just ten seconds.  In Sagan’s words, “Every person we’ve ever heard of lived somewhere in there. All those kings and battles, migrations and inventions, wars and loves. Everything in the history books happens here, in the last 10 seconds of the cosmic calendar.”

The point of the Cosmic Calendar is to give us some perspective about how long our species has been on Earth relative to how long the universe has been in existence.  Although we as humans are newcomers, arriving just 90 minutes before the clock strikes twelve, beginning a new year, we still have enormous power to influence the next cosmic year.  As Sagan puts it, “We have a choice: we can enhance life and come to know the universe that made us, or we can squander our 15 billion-year heritage in meaningless self-destruction.  What happens in the first second of the next cosmic year depends on what we do.”

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason: At what time on the cosmic calendar do humans first appear?

Challenge - It’s the Time of the Season:  What is the best thing anyone has ever said about time?  Do some research to find quotations.  Write down the one you like the best, and explain why you think the quotation is insightful.

Sources:

1-Sagan, Carl. The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence. New York: Ballantine Books, 1978. 

THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 7

Why is Pearl Harbor Day a good reminder of how to correctly evaluate decisions and how to correctly set goals? 

Subject: Outcome Bias - The Attack on Pearl Harbor

Event:  Pearl Harbor Day, 1941

 

The good life is a process, not a state of being. It is a direction not a destination. -Carl Rogers

This day in 1941 is known as “a date which will live in infamy.”  It is the day that sparked the United States’ involvement in World War II when the Japanese unexpectedly attacked Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

                                                                    Image by WikiImages from Pixabay 

On what was a quiet Sunday morning, hundreds of Japanese fighter planes descended on Pearl Harbor just before 8:00 AM. and destroyed nineteen vessels and over 300 planes.  More than 2,400 Americans were killed in the surprise attack.

After what was the worst disaster in American military history, officials immediately began searching for answers as to how it happened.  Although there had been signs of a possible attack by Japan before December 7, the problem was that there was too much intelligence, and much of it was conflicting.  The conventional wisdom before the attack was that Japan was incapable of mounting such an operation so far from its home shores; instead, an attack on the Philippines seemed a much more likely target.  Nevertheless, many looked at the intelligence and saw signs that should have caused U.S. military leaders to anticipate the attack and to evacuate the base (1).

The attack on Pearl Harbor is a classic case study in outcome bias:  the tendency to evaluate a decision based on its results rather than on its process.  It was easy to cherry pick from the plethora of intelligence after the fact and find evidence that an attack was imminent; however, because so much of the data was contradictory, a decision in real time was very difficult to make (2).

The lesson of outcome bias is to avoid judging a decision purely by its result. Randomness and chance play a big role in how things happen, and if we leap to judging things based on outcome rather than process or other external factors, we might miss important insights.   Imagine, for example, you take an important test such as the SAT and do poorly.  If you judge yourself solely on the result, it leaves little room for improvement.  If you focus instead on what you can learn from the process, you’ll be better prepared to improve your performance next time.

When setting goals, it is especially important to distinguish between process and outcome.  For example, you might set an outcome goal of achieving a certain score on the SAT; however, in pursuit of this goal, it is important to consider process goals:  specific acts or tasks that you need to complete in service of reaching your goal.  For example, setting an outcome goal of running a marathon in under four hours means little if you don’t have specific process goals.  How many miles, for example, are you going to run per week in training? What specific things should you consider regarding your diet and sleep schedule?

 

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  What can the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 teach us about evaluating decisions and setting goals?

Challenge - Process Versus Product:  Do some research on quotations about the theme of process versus product (outcome).  Pick a quotation you like, write it down, and explain why you think it is insightful.

ALSO ON THIS DAY:

December 7, 1928:  Today is the birthday of linguist and social critic Noam Chomsky, who was born in Philadelphia in 1928.  Chomsky spent more than 50 years as a professor at MIT and has authored over 100 books.  Chomsky has been called “the father of modern linguistics” and is one of the founders of the field of cognitive science.  Despite all of his accomplishments, Chomsky is perhaps best known for a single sentence:

 

Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

 

Published in his 1957 book Semantic Structures, Chomsky’s famous sentence illustrates the difference between two essential elements of language:  syntax and semantics.  Syntax relates to the grammar of a language or the order in which words are combined.  Semantics, in contrast, relates to the meaning of individual words.  Chomsky’s sentence illustrates the difference between syntax and semantics, showing that a grammatically or syntactically correct sentence can be constructed that is semantically nonsensical.

Sources:

1-Miller, Nathan. “Why Was the Surprise Attack At Pearl Harbor Such a Surprise?” The Baltimore Sun 1 December 1991.

2-Dobelli, Rolf. The Art of Thinking Clearly. New York: Harpercollins, 2013: 58-60.