THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 7

Subject: Outcome Bias - The Attack on Pearl Harbor

Event:  Pearl Harbor Day, 1941

 

The good life is a process, not a state of being. It is a direction not a destination. -Carl Rogers

This day in 1941 is known as “a date which will live in infamy.”  It is the day that sparked the United States’ involvement in World War II when the Japanese unexpectedly attacked Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

On what was a quiet Sunday morning, hundreds of Japanese fighter planes descended on Pearl Harbor just before 8:00 AM. and destroyed nineteen vessels and over 300 planes.  More than 2,400 Americans were killed in the surprise attack.

After what was the worst disaster in American military history, officials immediately began searching for answers as to how it happened.  Although there had been signs of a possible attack by Japan before December 7, the problem was that there was too much intelligence, and much of it was conflicting.  The conventional wisdom before the attack was that Japan was incapable of mounting such an operation so far from its home shores; instead, an attack on the Philippines seemed a much more likely target.  Nevertheless, many looked at the intelligence and saw signs that should have caused U.S. military leaders to anticipate the attack and to evacuate the base (1).

The attack on Pearl Harbor is a classic case study in outcome bias:  the tendency to evaluate a decision based on its results rather than on its process.  It was easy to cherry pick from the plethora of intelligence after the fact and find evidence that an attack was imminent; however, because so much of the data was contradictory, a decision in real time was very difficult to make (2).

The lesson of outcome bias is to avoid judging a decision purely by its result. Randomness and chance play a big role in how things happen, and if we leap to judging things based on outcome rather than process or other external factors, we might miss important insights.   Imagine, for example, you take an important test such as the SAT and do poorly.  If you judge yourself solely on the result, it leaves little room for improvement.  If you focus instead on what you can learn from the process, you’ll be better prepared to improve your performance next time.

When setting goals, it is especially important to distinguish between process and outcome.  For example, you might set an outcome goal of achieving a certain score on the SAT; however, in pursuit of this goal, it is important to consider process goals:  specific acts or tasks that you need to complete in service of reaching your goal.  For example, setting an outcome goal of running a marathon in under four hours means little if you don’t have specific process goals.  How many miles, for example, are you going to run per week in training? What specific things should you consider regarding your diet and sleep schedule?

Challenge - Process Versus Product:  Do some research on quotations about the theme of process versus product (outcome).  Pick a quotation you like, write it down, and explain why you think it is insightful.

Sources:

1-Miller, Nathan. “Why Was the Surprise Attack At Pearl Harbor Such a Surprise?” The Baltimore Sun 1 December 1991.

2-Dobelli, Rolf. The Art of Thinking Clearly. New York: Harpercollins, 2013: 58-60.