THINKER'S ALMANAC - November 9

How many battles must a general win in order to be considered a “great general”?

  

Subject: Skepticism - Fermi and the “Great General”

Event:  Birthday of astronomer Carl Sagan, 1934

Credulous acceptance of baloney can cost you money; that’s what P.T. Barnum meant when he said, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” -Carl Sagan

On this day in 1934, astronomer and Pulitzer Prize winning author Carl Sagan was born.  Sagan’s talent and enthusiasm for describing the stars made him America’s best known scientist.  His public television series “Cosmos” was one of the most widely viewed series in television history, challenging viewers to contemplate the vastness of space and the possibility of life existing elsewhere in the universe.  

In Sagan’s posthumously published book The Demon-Haunted World:  Science as a Candle in the Dark (1997), he challenges readers to explore the universe of their mind.  In a chapter called “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” Sagan explores the dos and the don’ts of sound, skeptical thinking.  In the tradition of the scientific method, Sagan challenges the reader to have at the ready the following principles for detecting nonsense in any argument:

1. Do an independent confirmation of the facts.

2. Debate the argument, seeking all points of view.

3. Be cautious of arguments from “authorities,” realizing that authorities can be wrong.

4. Spin more than one hypothesis by seeking out other possible explanations and disconfirming evidence.

5. Fight against the instinct toward confirmation bias by keeping an open mind.

6. Look for quantifying evidence, numerical data, that supports the argument.

7. Examine your line of reasoning, checking to make sure that every link in the chain of argument is sound.

8. Use Occam’s Razor as a rule of thumb when examining alternative hypotheses.

9. Test your hypothesis.  Think like a scientist to determine how a skeptic might approach your argument.  Just as a science experiment can be duplicated, would your conclusions hold up under scrutiny?

To illustrate the scientist’s skeptical mindset, Sagan shared an anecdote about the Italian physicist Enrico Fermi, who emigrated to America during World War II to work on the Manhattan project.  On the way to meet one of the leaders he would be working with on the government project, Fermi’s companion told him that the man they were about to meet was a “great general.” Fermi immediately questioned the claim as follows:

What is the definition of a great general?  Fermi characteristically asked.  I guess it’s a general who’s won many consecutive battles.  How many? After some back and forth, they settled on five.  What fraction of American generals are great?  After some more back and forth, they settled on a few percent.

                                                                    Image by Bill Bowler from Pixabay 

Fermi challenged his companion to question the hypothesis and to consider an alternative one:  that there is no such thing as a great general.  This would mean that the winning or losing of battles would be left to chance.  Quantifying the argument would make the chances of winning a single battle one out of two, “or ½, two battles ¼, three ⅛, four 1/16, and five consecutive battles 1/32 -- which is about 3 percent.”  Based on these numbers, it is possible that an American general might by chance win five consecutive battles.  Fermi concluded with another question:  “Now, has any of them won ten consecutive battles . . .?” (1).

Since Sagan’s death in 1996 at the age of 62, the amount of baloney in our world has grown exponentially.  More than ever, we need to keep in mind Sagan’s principles of baloney detection, and always be ready, like Fermi was, to apply them as a means to being scrupulously skeptical.

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  How did Enrico Fermi's challenging of a claim illustrate Sagan’s call to be skeptical?

Challenge - Phoney Baloney:  Review Sagan’s “Rules for Baloney Detection.”  What is the one rule you would say is most important of all?  Explain why.

ALSO ON THIS DAY:

November 9, 1989:  On this day in 1989, the East German Communist Party opened the Berlin Wall, allowing citizens of East Berlin to freely cross the border that had separated East and West Berlin since the wall went up in 1961.  That night, crowds swarmed the wall and some, armed with picks and hammers, began to dismantle the wall, which had stood as the most powerful symbol of the Cold War.  In 1989 several eastern European nations of the Soviet Union carried out successful anti-Communist revolutions, winning greater autonomy and the right to hold multiparty elections.  By December 1991 the Soviet Union ceased to exist and the Cold War was officially over (2).

Sources:

1-Sagan, Carl.  The Demon-Haunted World. “Chapter 12:  The Fine Art of Baloney Detection.” New York:  Ballantine books, 1996.

2-http://www.atomicarchive.com/History/coldwar/page22.shtml