THINKER'S ALMANAC - August 2

What kind of monumental idea was birthed at a London crosswalk?

Subject:  Analogies - Napoleon Rejects the Steamboat

Event:  Einstein and Szilard write an urgent letter to F.D.R., 1939

The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything except our thinking. Thus, we are drifting toward catastrophe beyond conception. We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive. -Albert Einstein

Today is the anniversary of a letter that changed history. The letter, dated August 2, 1939, was written by physicists Albert Einstein and Leo Szilard; it was addressed to the President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The letter warned of the Nazi's possible use of uranium for the development of atomic weapons.

 

The story behind this historic letter that led to the Manhattan Project begins in Germany, which before 1933 was a hotbed of scientific inquiry.  Germany had been awarded 99 Nobel Prizes in science compared to the United States' 6 Nobel Prizes. The rise of anti-semitism and Adolf Hitler, however, caused many Jewish scientists to flee Germany.

 

One who fled was Hungarian physicist Leo Szilard, who relocated to England. On September 12, 1933, Szilard had an earth-shattering idea.  

He had just read an article by another nuclear physicist that mocked the practicality of atomic energy.   Szilard did not share this attitude.  Standing at a crosswalk waiting for the light to turn green, he had a flash of insight:  Could neutrons be used to produce a nuclear chain reaction?  Walking to his room at the Strand Palace Hotel, Szilard drew a hot bath.  As he daydreamed about the possibilities of nuclear fusion, he lost track of time.  Three hours later he emerged from his bath with a more clearly thought-out answer to his question. That same year he applied for a patent for his idea of a neutron-induced nuclear reaction, and the patent was granted three years later in 1936.

Image by Mircea Iancu from Pixabay

Szilard's idea moved from theory to fact in 1939 when German scientists successfully split an atom. The fact that German scientists now had the knowledge of the potentially destructive power of the atom in their hands alarmed Szilard.

 

Traditionally scientists around the world published their breakthroughs for all to see. Szilard was afraid that the German scientists were using this information to develop a bomb. His fears were heightened when Germany invaded Czechoslovakia in 1939 and stopped all exports of uranium ore from the occupied country.

 

He urged scientists outside of Germany to delay the publication of their findings in fission-related areas, and he initiated a meeting with his former teacher Albert Einstein.

 

Einstein, like Szilard, was a Jew and had fled Germany during the rise of Hitler. By 1939 Einstein's theory of relativity had made him an international celebrity -- just the kind of name recognition that Szilard needed to get his alarm bell heard by world leaders.

 

Szilard met with Einstein in New York on July 30. Einstein dictated the letter to Szilard in German, and Szilard later translated it into a typed final draft for Einstein's signature.

 

The letter's opening read as follows:

 

Some recent work by E. Fermi and L. Szilard, which has been communicated to me in manuscript, leads me to expect that the element uranium may be turned into a new and important source of energy in the immediate future. Certain aspects of the situation which has arisen seem to call for watchfulness and if necessary, quick action on the part of the Administration. I believe therefore that it is my duty to bring to your attention the following facts and recommendations.  (2)

 

Even Einstein's signature, however, did not guarantee that the letter would get the attention it deserved. Einstein and Szilard entrusted the letter to Alexander Sachs, an unofficial advisor to F.D.R., but Roosevelt was preoccupied with the growing war in Europe, and Sachs was unable to get an appointment with him until October 1939.

 

To persuade Roosevelt, Sachs used a historical analogy. He told Roosevelt about American inventor Robert Fulton, who met with the French emperor during the Napoleonic Wars. The inventor offered to build a fleet of steamships that could invade England regardless of the weather. Napoleon was incredulous, unable to think beyond ships with sails. He sent the American away. Napoleon’s shortsightedness, arrogance, and lack of imagination saved England and sealed Napoleon's fate. It was a powerful analogy, and despite the fact that it took time for the Manhattan Project to get off the ground, it was the letter and Sach's persuasiveness that led to the development of the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945.

 

Ironically, near the end of the war, the Allies discovered that the Germans were at least two years away from developing the bomb. Furthermore, both Szilard and Einstein objected to the United States' use of the bomb. Even though Einstein did not work directly on the Manhattan Project, he called his decision to sign the letter to President Roosevelt the "one great mistake in my life" (1).

 

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  What analogy helped to persuade F.D.R. to begin the Manhattan Project?

Challenge - Look Back, But Keep Your Eyes Forward:  Making historical analogies like the one that persuaded F.D.R. is one important way that studying the past can help understand which direction to go in the future.  There are no perfect historical analogies, but each one can help us draw parallels and capitalize on the lessons of history.  Do some research to find a historical event that provides parallels for the present.  What are the lessons it provides about what was done right or done wrong?  And how can those lessons be applied to make better decisions about the future?

Sources:

1 - Gillon, Steven M. Ten Days That Unexpectedly Changed America. New York: Three Rivers Press, 2006.

2-Einstein's Letter to President Roosevelt - 1939 atomicarchive.com.