THINKER'S ALMANAC - October 1

What can the greatest soccer player of all time and his jersey teach us about logic?

Subject: Post Hoc Fallacy - Pele’s Jersey

Event:  Soccer star Pele retires, 1977

Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do. -Pele

Once upon a time, a boy named Joe was walking down the road when a black cat crossed his path.  This seemed like no big deal at the time, but soon after his encounter with the cat, something terrible happened:  Joe tripped, fell, and hit his head on a rock.  Fortunately, Joe recovered.  All he has now is a small scar on his forehead and a terrible fear of a black cat crossing his path.

Joe’s conclusions and the countless other similar superstitions that have plagued humankind for generations are based on our brain’s rational desire to understand not just what happens to us -- events -- but also WHY things happen -- causes.

Logical fallacies are categories of common errors that people make in their reasoning.  If we want to think well, we should be on the lookout for these common errors.  The fallacy that best sums up the error in Joe’s thinking  is called post hoc ergo propter hoc, which means “after this, therefore, because of this.”

This fallacy has also been called the “rooster fallacy”: each morning just before sunrise I hear a rooster crow; therefore, it must be the sound of the rooster’s crow that causes the sun to rise.

Besides roosters and black cats, another way to understand the post hoc fallacy is to remember a story about one of the greatest soccer players of all time, a player who retired from soccer on this day in 1977 after scoring 767 career goals.

Image by Matthias Groeneveld from Pixabay

Pele ended his career playing in the United States for the New York Cosmos, but he began his career playing in his native Brazil, where he led his team to three World Cup championships.

Pele made his name as a goal scorer, but there was one point in his career in the 1960s when he was experiencing a scoring drought. Desperate to get back on track and to score goals, he searched for a reason for his lack of scoring productivity.  Racking his brain for an answer, he remembered that after his last productive game, he had given his lucky jersey to a fan.  This, he concluded, must explain his problem.  His only option was to get his jersey back.  As a result, he called in a private detective to locate the fan and to get the jersey back. After conducting a thorough search, the detective tracked down the fan and convinced him to return the jersey.  When the detective showed up at Pele’s door with the jersey, he was overjoyed.  Having regained his old confidence, Pele once again became a prolific goal scorer.  What Pele did not know, however, is that the detective was not actually able to track down the fan; the jersey he gave Pele was, in fact, simply a jersey he had scrounged from one of Pele’s previous games.

Fortunately for Pele, a placebo jersey was enough to get him back on track.  He broke his scoring slump; his thinking, however, was still less than stellar.  

The key to avoiding post hoc thinking is to go beyond just the why and to think more about the how.  Also, avoid the common human tendency of settling for a single cause; instead, look for other possible explanations (See THINKER’S ALMANAC -February 26). For example, if Pele had thought a bit more carefully about how a jersey contributed to his goal-scoring, he might have ended his slump sooner.  Also, instead of latching onto the single cause, he might have entertained some other more plausible explanations.

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  What is the post hoc fallacy, and how can it be illustrated with a three-part example:  1) THIS: preceding event, 2) THEN THIS: following event, 3) THEREFORE: casual connection?

Challenge - Superstition In Sports:  Sports is a prime breeding ground for the post hoc fallacy.  Research other examples of superstitions in sports. What is the most interesting one?

ALSO ON THIS DAY:

-October 1, 1914:  Today is the birthday of historian Daniel Boorstin, who said, “The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”

Sources:

1-Brown, John.  “BLETHER: Superstitious superstar Pele couldn’t play without ‘lucky’ shirt.”  Evening Telegraph 29 July 2019.