THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 14

Subject:  Hindsight Bias - The Prophecies of Nostradamus

Event:  Birthday of Michel de Nostredame, 1503

On this day in 1503, the French physician and astrologer Nostradamus was born in Saint-Rémy, France.  Although he was expelled from medical school, he gained notoriety for his innovative treatments of plague victims in 1546-47.  In 1555, he published a book of prophecies entitled Centuries.  Since the publication of Nostradamus’ prophecies, people have scoured his vague, metaphoric language, which happens to be written in verse, to find lines that reveal his prescience.

 

For example, some claim that the following lines reveal that Notrodamas prophesied the Challenger space shuttle disaster on January 28, 1986:

 

From the human flock nine will be sent away,

Separated from judgment and counsel:

Their fate will be sealed on departure

Kappa, Thita, Lambda the banished dead err (I.81).

 

Of course, even if we grant the fact that these verses refer to a specific event more than 400 years after Nostradamas’ death, we must still concede that seven astronauts were killed on that day, not nine (1).

Cognitive psychologists call this phenomenon hindsight bias.  We tend to believe that we do a better job of predicting events than we actually do.  Since hindsight is 20/20, when we look back, the reasons that something happened seem to be clear.

To illustrate hindsight bias in a more modern context, Guy P. Harrison, in his book Good Thinking, uses the example of Super Bowl XLIX where the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawk by intercepting a pass in the final seconds.  With just twenty-six seconds left in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks were down by four points.  It was first down with the ball on the one-yard line. As the Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson dropped back to pass, the Patriots defensive back Malcolm Butler jumped in front of the intended Seahawk receiver and intercepted the pass, ending the Seahawks’ hopes of winning.

Almost immediately commentators and fans went into Monday-morning quarterback mode, saying that the Seahawks’ coach should have run the ball, giving it to the Seahawks’ star running back Marshawn Lynch.  This was classic hindsight bias.  In retrospect, running the ball seemed to be the obvious call, but as Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said in his postgame remarks, the matchups on the play did not favor a running play (2).

Hindsight bias causes us to be overconfident in our ability to predict the future.  The next time you watch the news, ask yourself honestly how much of what you see was predictable.

Challenge - Failed Predictions:  A great way to overcome the overconfidence that leads to hindsight bias is to explore failed predictions from the past.  For example, in the 16th century Johannes Stoffler, a German mathematician and astrologer, predicted a great flood.  He claimed that the planets would align under Pisces, a water sign, on February 25, 1524, and that on that day torrential rain would begin to fall.  Many took Stoffler’s prediction seriously; in fact, a German nobleman named Count von Iggleheim constructed a three-story ark.  When February 25 arrived, there was light rain but no flood (3).

 

Sources:

1-The Skeptic’s Dictionary. “Hindsight Bias.” 14 Jan. 2014.

2-Harrison, Guy P. Good Thinking. New York:  Prometheus Books, 2015.

3-Cole, Rachel. “10 Failed Doomsday Predictions.” Britannica.com.