THINKER'S ALMANAC - September 8

How can a piece of toast that sold on eBay for $28,000 teach us to be more skeptical?

Subject:  Clustering Illusion and V2 Rockets

Event:  Germany launches V2 rockets on London, 1944 

On September 8, 1944, Germany launched its first V2 rocket on London.  Earlier in the summer of 1944, Londoners had been the target for another rocket, the V1.  As rockets fell and devastated London, authorities plotted each impact site.  Examiners of the map were drawn to large gaps that had never been hit; this fueled speculation that the gaps were populated by German spies, intentionally spared by the Nazis.   After the war, however, statisticians re-examined the map and determined that the distribution of rocket hits was random; this was confirmed by the fact that we now know that the rockets did not have a sophisticated navigation system (1).

This failed search for a pattern in randomness should not be a surprise.  The human brain is a pattern and rule seeking organ.  This is obviously an admirable quality and one which no doubt has contributed to our survival as a species.  The caveat, however, is that like the Londoners in World War II, we are so desperate to find patterns that in their absence we will make them up.  Whether we are looking at clouds in the sky or at the burn marks on a piece of toast, our brain seeks out a familiar pattern within the randomness.  It is no wonder then that when the first photos of the surface of Mars were sent from the Viking spacecraft in 1976, humans mistook a random rock formation for a human face.

Psychologists call this the clustering illusion.  It reminds us of the incredible power our brains have for finding meaning; it is also a reminder that sometimes our brains can be oversensitive.  The lesson here is to look for patterns but to also maintain your skepticism.

In 1994, Diane Duyser was just about to bite into a piece of toast when she noticed the face of the Virgin Mary looking back at her.  Instead of eating the toast, she placed it in a plastic bag.  Ten years later she sold it on eBay for $28,000 (2).

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:   What is the clustering illusion, and what does it tell us about the positive and negative abilities of our mind?

Challenge - Skeptical Inquiry:  What role should skepticism play in our thinking?  Do a search on quotations about skepticism.  Select one that you like, and explain why you think the quotation helps us understand the role that skepticism should play in our thinking.

Also on this Day: 

September 8, 1504:  Michelangelo’s statue David was unveiled in Florence, Italy.

September 8, 1966:  Today is International Literacy Day sponsored by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). First observed on this day in 1966, International Literacy Day calls attention to the need to promote literacy and education around the world as an antidote to poverty and as an agent for empowerment and global progress (3).

September 8, 1966:  The first episode of the television show Star Trek aired.

September 8, 2020:  The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness is published.  The book, by Morgan Housel, gives many insights on how their poor thinking can lead to poverty, including this one:  “Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.” (see TA August 8) 

 

Sources:

1-Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011:  115-6.

2-Dobelli, Rolf.  The Art of Thinking Clearly. New York:  Harper Paperback, 2014:  7.

3-UNESCO.  “International Literacy Day.”