THINKER'S ALMANAC - September 9

How can a description of an apple by a Russian novelist remind us to extend our reasoning?

September 9

Subject:  Fallacy of the Single Cause - Tolstoy’s Apple

Event:  Birthday of Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy, 1828

We are too much accustomed to attribute to a single cause that which is the product of several, and the majority of our controversies come from that.

-Marcus Aurelius

Why did the Roman Empire fall?  Why did you get a low grade on your last math test?  Why is Costco so popular?  

Our minds are constantly being bombarded by “why” questions that call for answers.  More often than not we are satisfied with a single explanation -- a single reason that satisfies the result.  Unfortunately, the world is a bit more complicated than that.  A great empire doesn’t fall for a single reason; instead, many causes combine to bring about effects.  

The Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy, who was born on this day in 1828, reminds us of this in a passage from his masterpiece, the novel War and Peace:

When an apple has ripened and falls, why does it fall? Because of its attraction to the earth, because its stalk withers, because it is dried by the sun, because it grows heavier, because the wind shakes it, or because the boy standing below wants to eat it? No one thing is the cause.  All this is only the coincidence of conditions in which all vital organic and elemental events occur. And the botanist who finds that the apple falls because the cellular tissue decays and so forth is equally right with the child who stands under the tree and says the apple fell because he wanted to eat it and prayed for it.

Image by Ralph from Pixabay

Tolstoy’s passage reminds us to watch out for the fallacy of the single cause.  Our minds are great simplifiers, and they love the shortcut provided by a single explanation.  Our logical brains demand a reason, but remember to stretch your mind by looking for multiple “becauses.”

The news media is especially susceptible to this fallacy.  The next time you watch the news or read the newspaper, observe how often single causes are offered to explain events, especially unfortunate ones.  Frequently a media-offered cause becomes the accepted narrative.  Human beings and their interactions with the world are just too complex to be explained by single causes.  So, don’t ask, “What is the cause of the increase in the number of school shootings?”  Instead, ask, “What are the multiple possible explanations for the increase in school shootings?”  And when you hear a single explanation for some kind of cultural phenomenon, always question the narrative, and seek out other possible and additional reasons (1).

One excellent example of someone who did not fall prey to the fallacy of the single clause was Thomas Jefferson.  You might think that the Declaration of Independence was all about one reason: “taxation without representation.”  This, however, was just one of 27 specific grievances that provided the rationale for revolution.  Clearly, American colonists had many more reasons to be unhappy with the British monarchy.

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason: What is the fallacy of the single cause, and can the writer Leo Tolstoy and founding father Thomas Jefferson help us to avoid it?

Challenge:  Ninety-nine Reasons on 9/9:  One excellent way to stretch your reasoning muscles is to pick a topic or cause and begin listing multiple reasons that it matters.  Jefferson's topic, for example, was “Reasons that the Colonies are justified in being granted their independence.”  What is something -- a topic or a cause -- that you feel so strongly about that you could generate nearly 100 reasons?

Also on this day:

September 9, 1513:  On this day the English army defeated the Scots at the Battle of Flodden.  This same year the Scottish Gaelic term sluagh-ghairm was first recorded meaning “army-shout,” “war-cry,” or “slogan.”  Today we associate “slogans” mainly with words that are carefully selected to attract attention to advertise products in the marketplace rather than the battlefield (2). 

September 9, 1850:  Today is the anniversary of California's admission as the 31st state of the Union. The discovery of gold in California in 1848 caused its population to explode, and in 1849 settlers applied for admission to the Union after drafting a state constitution that prohibited slavery. Because making California a state would upset the balance of free and slave states, statehood was delayed until the Compromise of 1850 opened the door for statehood.  In addition to a state constitution, Californians adopted a state seal in 1849 with the motto "Eureka," -- The Greek word for "I Have Found It" -- an appropriate interjection for a state whose reputation was made on gold strikes. California is not the only state with a motto in a tongue other than English.  In fact, 'English Only' proponents might be surprised to learn that more than half of the states in the union have mottos in other languages (3).

September 9, 2018:  John Legend achieves the EGOT, adding an Emmy award to his Grammy, Oscar, and Tony awards.

Sources:

1-Dobelli, Rolf.  The Art of Thinking Clearly New York:  Harper Paperback, 2014: 290.

2-Dent, Susie.  Word Perfect.  London:  John Murray, 2020:  277.

3-https://www.loc.gov/collections/california-first-person-narratives/about-this-collection/