THINKER'S ALMANAC - December 22

How did a failed doomsday prophecy in 1954 lead to an essential psychological insight into how humans rationalize failure?

Subject:  Cognitive Dissonance - The Seekers

Event: Dorothy Martin’s Prophecy, 1954

 

We are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. -George Orwell

In 1954, psychologist Leon Festinger saw an intriguing headline in the newspaper:  “Prophecy From Planet Clarion Call to City:  Flee That Flood.”  The article explained the strange beliefs of a Chicago cult called the Seekers, led by housewife Dorothy Martin, who claimed to be receiving communications from the planet Clarion.  Based on these communications, Martin revealed that on December 21, 1954, the world would end.  Prior to the event, however, Martin also explained that aliens would come via flying saucers to collect her faithful followers and take them to safety on Clarion.

Assuming that Martin’s proclamations were incorrect, Festinger arranged for some of his students to infiltrate the Seekers in order to observe them up close.  Festinger was especially interested in how the group would react on this day, December 22, when they learned that the flying saucers did not arrive as scheduled and that the world did not end.

As Festinger expected, the morning of December 22 dawned without the arrival of any alien visitors.  Early that morning at 4:45 AM Martin called the Seekers together to deliver her latest message from Clarion.

Martin’s message totally reframed the Seekers’ situation, turning it from tragedy to triumph.  She proclaimed that because her people had shown how much faith, the earth had been spared:

 “…by his word have ye been saved -- for from the mouth of death have ye been delivered and at no time has there been such a force loosed upon the Earth.  Not since the beginning of time upon this Earth has there been such  force of Good and light as now floods this room.”

Festinger documented the story of the Seekers in his 1956 book When Prophecy Fails, and he called the phenomenon of clashing beliefs experienced by the Seekers cognitive dissonance.  And as he further explained, cognitive dissonance is a type of thinking all humans experience:  facing incompatible beliefs, we rationalize a situation or justify a failure. Who hasn’t, for example, gone on a diet one day and then gone on a junk food binge the next.  We might be disappointed with ourselves, but we are also capable of buoying our self esteem by rationalizing our behavior by explaining it away as a minor indiscretion.

                                                                    Image by Maddy Mazur from Pixabay 

To establish the reality of cognitive dissonance under experimental conditions, Festinger set up a study that he called “The Boring Task.”  It began by giving subjects an hour-long task:  simply turning pegs monotonously on a wooden board.  Once that task was completed, he offered half the subjects one dollar to tell the next person waiting to complete the task that it was fun and interesting.  The other half of the subjects were offered twenty dollars to tell the next person in line that the task was fun and interesting.  Finally, all participants were interviewed by researchers and asked what they really thought about the task.  The results showed that subjects who had been paid one dollar reported that the task was enjoyable, while subjects who were paid twenty dollars reported that the task was terribly dull.

Festinger interpreted the results as consistent with how ordinary people adjust their beliefs when faced with cognitive dissonance.  The people who were given just one dollar to lie experienced an uncomfortable clash of belief between their true feelings about the task being boring and the fact that they had told someone else it was fun.  This clash of beliefs was resolved by simply altering their beliefs and reporting that the task was actually fun.  In contrast, the people who were given twenty dollars felt no need to alter their beliefs because they had been fairly compensated to lie and thus felt no need to justify their actions (1).

Recall, Retrieve, Recite, Ruminate, Reflect, Reason:  How did Festinger’s boring task show that ordinary people experience cognitive dissonance?

Challenge - Franklin and the Fish:  In his autobiography, Benjamin Franklin recounts the following incident.  Read it carefully, and explain how specifically Franklin experienced cognitive dissonance:

I believe I have omitted mentioning that , in my first voyage from Boston, being becalmed off Block Island, our people set about catching cod, and hauled up a great many. Hitherto I had stuck to my resolution of not eating animal food, and on this occasion I considered, with my master Tryon, the taking every fish as a kind of unprovoked murder, since none of them had or ever could do us any injury that might justify the slaughter. All this seemed very reasonable. But I had formerly been a great lover of fish, and when this came hot out of the frying-pan, it smelt admirably well. I balanced some time between principle and inclination, till I recollected that, when the fish were opened, I saw smaller fish taken out of their stomachs. Then thought I, "If you eat one another, I don't see why we mayn't eat you." So I dined upon cod very heartily, and continued to eat with other people, returning only now and then occasionally to a vegetable diet. So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.

 

ALSO ON THIS DAY:

December 22, 1944:  On this day in 1944, American soldiers of the 101 Airborne Division at the Belgian town of Bastogne were surrounded by German forces.  In what later became known as the Battle of the Bulge, the American forces were caught off guard when Hitler launched a surprise counteroffensive.  At 11:30 on the morning of December 22, German couriers with white flags arrived at the American lines, delivering a letter demanding the surrender of the Americans.  The acting commander of the 101st, Brigadier General Anthony McAuliffe, read the letter.  After pausing for a moment to reflect and to ask for input from his subordinates, he scribbled the following laconic reply:

 

To the German commander:

 

Nuts!

 

The American commander

 

The German couriers spoke English, but they were puzzled by the general’s reply.  As U.S. officers escorted them back to the defensive line, they explained to the Germans that “nuts” meant the same thing as “go to hell.” The soldiers of the 101st continued to hold their ground under the attacks of the Germans for the four days that followed until the siege was finally broken with the arrival of U.S. tank forces of the Third Army, led by Lieutenant General George S. Patton. The laconic reply has a long military tradition that dates back to the Spartans of ancient Greece, who were known for their blunt statements and dry wit.  In fact, the word “laconic,” meaning “concise, abrupt” is a toponym originating from a region of Sparta known as Laconia.  In Spartan schools, for example, a boy whose reply to a question was too verbose was subject to being punished by having his thumb bitten by his teacher (3).  When Philip II of Macedon - father of Alexander the Great - invaded Greece in the third century BC, he sent the following threat to the Spartans:   “You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city."  The Spartan’s replied:  “If.”  (4).

 

Sources:  

1-Grimes, David Rober.  Good Thinking.  New York:  The Experiment, 2019.

2-The Electric Ben Franklin.  The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (1793).

3-Cartledge, Paul.  Spartan Reflections. University of California Press, 2003:  85.

4-http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=laconic. https://www.army.mil/article/92856